How will UMTS Evolve?

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Introduction

It breaks down between the following:

  • EDGE to Enchanced EDGE
  • 3GPP UMTS to HSDPA/HSUPA to further evolution
  • 3GPP Long-term Evolution (LTE)
  • EVDO Rev 0 to Rev A to Rev B to Rev C
  • Fixed WiMax to Mobile WiMax



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EDGE will evolve from Downlink (DL) 474 K and Uplink (UL) 474 K to DL 1.3 M and UL 653 K in 2007.

3GPP UMTS will evolve from HSDPA DL 14.4 M and UL 384 K to HSDPA/HSUPA DL 14.4 M and UL 5.76 M in 2007 to further evolution starting with DL 28 M and UL 11.5 M

3GPP LTE will start in 2009 with DL 100 M and UL 50 M

CDMA 2000 will evolve from EVDO Rev 0 with DL 2.4 M and UL 153 K in 1.25 MHz to Rev A in 2007 with DL 3.1 M and UL 1.8 M to Rev B in 2008 with 14.7 M and UL 4.9 M in 5 MHz to Rev C in 2009 with DL 100 M and UL 50 M in 20 MHz

WiMax will evolve in phase 1 to DL 23 M and UL 4 in 2007 to phase 2 in 2008 with DL 46 M and UL 4 M.

Who will be the clear winner? The answer is it depends on the timing.

WiMax is clearly the more near-term winner, especially for data driven applications such as mobile workforce, M2M communications, backhaul, and mesh applications such as RFID and sensing devices for public safety and homeland security.

3GPP UMTS and CDMA 2000 will eventually catch up, but will it be too late for various infrastructure applications such as those in a municipal wireless placement?

However, is WiMax just a "stop-gap" solution as quoted by Robert Crago, author of
Face-off: WiMax vs. WiFi vs. 4G , WiMax Industry report and more.

"Sprint's 1xEVDO is only a stop gap measure to meet the data communications service demand by the consumer. Sprint was looking for a way to move past Verizon in subscribers. The Nextel IDen platform, owned by Sprint, has prevented them from being as competitive in the wireless broadband services sector. Although the Nextel subscriber base was strong because of the PTT feature, Sprint had a problem moving into the next wireless broadband service offering. The partnership with Samsung and Motorola to develop a new infrastructure based on WiMax has given Sprint the spring board they needed to surpass Verizon. The investment by Sprint and Verizon will play itself out in a short time frame. The Verizon network upgrade will be completed by 2008 with Sprint rolling out WiMax the same year. Verizon has the edge over Sprint in delivering wireless broadband services to the time being."

But what about the hotspot market? Is there room for WiFi for public access or will 4G technologies take over as referenced by Zaga Novakoic, author of Public Access WLAN Case Studies 2007

"During the past four years of our coverage of public access Wi-Fi, a vast majority of our predications have come true. Companies have gone under, technologies have evolved, and the rush and public onslaught to embrace and pay for Wi-Fi access has not happened, at least not in a meaningful and profitable way. Mobile phone operators can and do now offer HSDPPA/EVDO networks whose access rates are quite adequate for the average needs of the business user, and those access speeds will only get better in the upcoming months. This in effect has the ability to disrupt the Public Access model that some businesses staked everything on. Those who developed and evolved EVDO and HSDPA have deep pockets and a rich history of innovation while WLAN is still far behind with even chips and battery life being an issue that needs to be resolved which the mobile world resolved years ago."

The editors at MobileIN.com beleive there is a place for all three technologies - WiFi, WiMax, and 4G cellular - but it is important for suppliers and service providers to carefully define the application and service mix for each deployment and to periodially review over time.

As is usually the case, it will be the evolution of applications that will drive UMTS evolution rather than the other way around.


 

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