Global analysis and forecasts of mobile markets, technology and subscriber growth.

About this market study

2005 was another year of healthy growth for the mobile industry and and the global rise of this popular technology continued unabated. The total number of mobile subscribers worldwide at the end of 2005 grew to 2.129 billion, an increase of 384 million subscribers from the start of the year. This figure is expected to increase to approximately 3.964 billion by the end of 2011. In the same time frame, the population of the world is likely to increase from approximately 6.5 billion to approximately 7 billion, meaning that worldwide mobile phone penetration should pass the 50% mark some time around the end of 2009.

A substantial part of this growth in subscribers will be witnessed in the Asia Pacific region, with vast growth opportunities in China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. By 2011, we estimate that the Asia Pacific region will account for approximately 50% of the worlds entire mobile subscriber base, with a staggering 1.067 billion subscribers between China and India, the worlds two biggest mobile markets.

Between the start of 2006 and the end of 2011, while the Asia Pacific region adds a little over 1 billion subscribers to the world total, Africa is likely to see net adds of 265 million, closely followed by Latin America adding 205 million to the global total. By contrast, growth will be slower in more mature markets, with North America adding 75 million to the world total and Western and Northern Europe adding just 30 million to that figure. Central, Eastern and Southern Europe should see better growth, adding a further 79 million mobile subscribers as the big Russian and Turkish markets reach saturation, and finally the Middle East is also expected to see growth of an additional 79 million subscribers, largely in Iran and Iraq.
 
Key datapoints available in this market study:

• Identify the top 25 mobile growth markets worldwide
• Worldwide mobile subscriber growth forecasts by region and by technology from 2005-2011
• Subscriber growth forecasts for 55 leading country markets
• 2005 and 2006 handset market shipments and market share forecasts
• 3G growth forecasts by region and by country for 46 leading country markets

Dramatic subscriber growth in China and India is not likely to come as a surprise to anyone, however this research reveals many other exciting growth markets that should not be overlooked. Almost equal in 3rd place, Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria look set to generate approximately 73 million new subscribers each in the period from end-2005 to end-2011. Next, and of most interest to many, is the USA, where we forecast almost 66 million net adds in the time period covered by this study. Unlike all those markets already mentioned, the USA is not an emerging market but the worlds richest economy, and these 66 million new subscribers are likely to generate vast new revenues for mobile operators in the fast consolidating US market, and for other players in the value chain, such as MVNOs and branded content providers.

Another surprising growth market is Japan, where the country looks set to add a further 14 million new subscribers by 2011, beating Argentina, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Canada in our growth charts. And Russia, often tipped as one of the biggest and fastest growing markets in the world, is fast reaching it's potential. Russia started 2006 with over 120 million mobile subscribers, demonstrating that much of the country's awesome growth potential has already been realized, and with only a little over 28 million net adds forecast from now to end-2011, growth in this market is eclipsed in our charts by the markets of Pakistan, Mexico, Bangladesh and Iran, which add more than 182 million new subscribers between them.

Table of Contents

List of 292 Figures

List of 152 Tables

Worldwide Mobile Market – Overview
Subscriber Growth and Penetration
Regional Comparative Summary

The Top 25 Mobile Growth Markets Worldwide
Regional Market Development
Leading Country Markets

Trends in Value-Added Services
Market Summary
SMS
MMS
Mobile Email
Mobile IM

Handset Market
Market Size
Regional Break-Up
Key Players
Handset Shipments 2005
Vendor Market Share

Western and Northern Europe
Regional Summary
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
The Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
The UK
Other Key Mobile Markets

Central and Eastern Europe
Regional Summary
Croatia
Czech Republic
Greece
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Russia
Turkey
Ukraine
Other Key Mobile Markets

Asia Pacific
Regional Summary
Australia
Bangladesh
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
New Zealand
Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Other Key Mobile Markets

North America
Regional Summary
Canada
US

Latin America
Regional Summary
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Other Key Mobile Markets

Africa
Regional Summary
Egypt
Morocco
Nigeria
South Africa
Other Key Mobile Markets

Middle East
Regional Summary
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Other Key Mobile Markets

Worldwide 3G Summary
State of 3G uptake
Western and Northern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Latin America and the Middle East
Africa

Growth Drivers and Inhibitors

Appendices
Glossary
Forecast Methodology
Portio Research Classifications
Bibliography
Authors

Each Country Profile Contains:
Market Overview
Subscriber Growth and Penetration
Forecast Data
Competitive Landscape
Player Positioning
Recent Developments
Technology Status
Growth of 3G
Trends in Value Added Services
Contact Details of Mobile Network Operators