This report considers the development of the open source mobile Operating Systems (OS) from the not for profit organisation Symbian Foundation (formed originally by Nokia) and Android (formed by Google) which are vying to be the open source smart phone mobile OS of choice for a range of handset manufacturers and mobile network operators. 

Nokia, the owner of the Symbian Foundation, has made the company into a non for profit organisation and has recruited a number of companies to join as members and is converting various mobile OS into one unified version based on open source standards.

In terms of worldwide licences for mobile OS, it is Symbian which has traditionally held up to half of the world market, largely thanks to the dominance of Nokia in European markets. But over time Symbian has lost market share to other OS mobile providers including Apple's OSX and RIM's Blackberry OS. 

Open source mobile OS services are being promoted by both Google (through Android) and Nokia (through Symbian) as a lower cost alternative to proprietary mobile OS standards and Microsoft's licence-based Windows Mobile OS standard.

But the goal of the new mobile OS standards is to become the centre of a sustainable mobile ecosystem, which includes handset, applications, content and provide recurring revenues to the handset or content company. In essence the control of the mobile OS is a key element in controlling the mobile ecosystem. 

These developments affect the key foundations beneath the mobile telecoms industry, namely handsets and services. More opportunities will arise given the commitment by major players to support this arena. The digital commercial landscape is becoming more fractured with competitive activity increasing, indicating a proliferation in opportunities for players across the value chain.  

This report will show how rivals can compete given the current composition of the mobile value chain, with pressure on margins intensifying. Read this report and find out why and how a multitude of companies are leveraging OS platforms to rapidly grow their market presence and extending a wider variety of services and applications to a wider audience.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
E1. Mobile Remittance and m-transaction - Unexpected Adoption and Benefits for Developing Economies
E2. The short term impact of the global economic downturn
E3. Remittances to support new long term banking direction
E4. Providing Favourable Regulatory Frameworks

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

E1.     The importance of smartphones

E2.     Mobile Ecosystem Transformation

E3.     Start of a true mobile OS race?

E4.     Standards and positioning in the mobile ecosystem

E7.     The Key Take Aways from this report

1.      The Competitive Landscape for the rival open source mobile Operating Systems (OS)

1.1     Introduction

            1.1.1 Commercial open source OS enter the mass market

            1.1.2   Overcoming market maturity and saturation

1.2     The traditional closed Mobile Operating System (OS) model

1.3     Disputed definitions of openness in mobile OS

1.4     Erosion in the validity and sustainability of licence fee-centric models

1.5     Defensive strategies by MNOs, handset manufacturers and rival Linux-based OS

1.6     Switch of focus from "devices" to "software and content"

1.7     The traditional value chain (Content provider, network operator & handset provider)

1.8     Transformation along the mobile value chain

1.9     Challenges facing the mobile operator & handset provider

1.10    The challenge of stimulating data growth

1.11    The Smartphone Stimulus: the iPhone as a growth driver for mobile data

1.12    Lifting restrictions on software for devices

1.13    Access enabler to content and search

1.14    The new types of business model

1.15    Key Point Summary

2       The Key Drivers for new Mobile open source Operating Systems OS)

2.1     Introduction

2.2     The competitive environment for the mobile open source OS

2.3     The continued growth of smartphones and 3G or HSPA networks

2.4     The growth of flat rate data plans

2.5     The emergence of improved User Interfaces (UI)

2.6     The personalisation of the mobile experience (use of the applications store)

2.7     The migration from the handset sales model to the service model

2.8     LiMo Foundation

2.9     Comparison between mobile OS market positioning in terms of cost

2.10    Key Point Summary

3       The development of the open source mobile operating system OS)

3.1     Introduction

3.2     The introduction of the Android operating system by Google

            3.2.1   Extending search and apps over mobility

            3.2.2   Encouraging ubiquity via open source

            3.2.3   Android post-launch

            3.2.4   Further Incentives for Google from Android

            3.2.5   The growth of the Open Handset Alliance

            3.2.6   The next steps for the deployment of the Android mobile OS

                        3.2.6.1 Releasing the G1

                        3.2.6.2 Launching Android Market

3.3     The introduction of the Symbian mobile OS by Nokia (and the Symbian Foundation)

            3.3.1   Early synergies

            3.3.2   The change in the Symbian business model to an open source model

            3.3.3   The next steps for the development of the Symbian mobile OS

3.4     Key Point Summary

4       Towards the deployment of a new Mobile Ecosystem

4.1     Introduction

4.2     The prerequisites for successful deployment of an ecosystem

4.3     The development of an application developer base

4.4     The growth of a free or advertising based mobile model

4.6     The attractions of open source to the mobile handset company

4.7     The attractions of an open source OS to the Mobile Network Operator (MNO)

4.8     The attractions of an open source OS to the mobile subscriber

4.9     Key Point Summary

5       The Android mobile open source operating system (OS) - the key attributes

5.1     Introduction

5.2     The importance of Android for Google

5.3     Android as an enabler for mobile search, LBS and user defined content

5.4     Challenges for Android

5.5     Competitive threats

5.6     Opportunities for development

5.7     The forecast impact & adoption levels for Android

            5.7.1   Potential Strengths & Weaknesses

                        5.7.1.1 Potential Strengths

                        5.7.1.2 Potential Weaknesses

5.8     Key Point Summary

6       The Symbian mobile open source operating system (OS) - the key attributes

6.1     Introduction

6.2     The importance of Symbian for Nokia

6.3     The Symbian Foundation

6.4     Challenges to the Symbian mobile OS

            6.4.1   Competitive threats

            6.4.2   Opportunities for development

6.5     The forecast impact & adoption levels for the Symbian mobile OS

            6.5.1   Perceived strengths & weaknesses

                        6.5.1.1 Perceived Strengths

                        6.5.1.2 Perceived Weaknesses

            6.5.2   Forecast open source OS growth versus overall OS growth

6.6     Key Point Summary

7       The impact of open source mobile operating systems on the mobile landscape

7.1     Introduction

7.2     Potential barriers to the adoption of Android & Symbian mobile OS standards

7.3     The potential competitive response from rival mobile operating systems

            7.3.1   Microsoft Windows Mobile OS

            7.3.2   Apple mobile OSX

            7.3.3   Blackberry OS (RIM)

7.4     Reactions to the mobile open source operating system from the components of the mobile ecosystem

            7.4.1   The mobile operator

            7.4.2   The handset provider

            7.4.3   The content provider

7.5     The mobile subscriber adoption of Android and Symbian to date

            7.5.1   Subscriber preferences for mobile open source services

7.6     Key Point Summary

8.      Conclusions to the Mobile OS Race: The Android and Symbian factors in an emerging ecosystem

8.1     Introduction

8.2     Key factors in the Mobile OS race

8.3     The migration to free usage services

8.4     The future response from Microsoft

8.5     The future response from Apple

8.6     The creation of a new mobile ecosystem

8.7     The main factors affecting the future mobile OS growth

8.8     Winners & losers from the mobile OS race

            8.8.1   2010- Make or Break

            8.8.2 Crucial MNO support

8.9     Key Point Summary

List of charts, tables and figures in order of appearance

Chart 1: Estimated Mobile OS market shares as of the end of 2008

Figure 1. The Mobile Network Operator (MNO)'s position in the value chain

Figure 2. Components of the traditional mobile sector value chain

Figure 3. Changes in components of the mobile value chain

Chart 2. RIM revenue breakdown, Q3 2008

Figure 4. Components of the new mobile sector value chain

Table 1. Mobile Applications Store Launches since 2007

Chart 3. Selected MNO data growth statistics - year on year (excluding SMS)

Table 3. Forecast new handset & smart phone sales from 2008 to 2013

Chart 4. Forecast new handset & smart phone sales from 2008 to 2013

Chart 5. A mobile OS market share forecast - from 2008 to 2013

Table 4. Forecast mobile OS market share predictions from 2008 to 2013 (in percentages)

Table 6. The LiMo Foundation membership

Figure 5. The LiMo Foundation OS Platform Scope

Figure 6. The relative market positioning of the main mobile OS types

Chart 6. Estimated smart phone market share as of the end of December 2008

Chart 7. Estimated smart phone mobile OS market share as of the end of 2008

Table 7. Estimated relative changes in smart phone mobile OS year on year (for 2008)

Table 8. Google's development guidelines for Mobile handsets

Table 9. Google handset mobile experience

Table 10. The members of the Open Handset Alliance

Table 11.  The HTC Magic Android handset specification, initial information

Figure 7.  The current mobile ecosystem development cycle

Table 13. T-Mobile UK smart phone data traffic uplifts

Figure 8. The Android mobile OS Architecture schematic

Chart 8. The forecast subscribers for Linux & Android open source mobile OS from 2008 to 2013

Chart 9. Forecast subscribers for the Symbian open source mobile OS from 2008 to 2013

Chart 10.  Apple iPhone sales from launch (from mid 2007 to the end of  2008)

Table 14. Services provided by the handset "operator"

Chart 11. Mobile web browsing statistics for smart phones, February 2009

Table 15. Mobile OS market share by mobile browser usage (February 2009)

Companies & Organistations listed in report

Acer

Adobe

Aplix Corporation

Apple

Ascender

Asus

AT&T

Audience

BBC

Blyk

Broadcom

China Mobile

China Telecom

eBay

Ericsson

Esmertec

Fujitsu

Garmin

Google

HTC

Huawei Technologies

Intel

Interbrand

KDDI

LG

Marvell Semiconductor

McAfee

Microsoft

Motorola

NEC

Nokia

Noser Engineering

NTT DoCoMo

Nuance Communications

NVIDIA

O2 UK

Opera

Orange

PacketVideo

Palm

Panasonic

PayPal

Qualcomm

RIM

Samsung

SFR

Siemens

SingTel

SiRF

Skype

SkyPop

Sonivox

Sony Ericsson

Sprint-Nextel

STMicroelectronics

Sun Microsystems

Symbian Foundation

Synaptics

TAT - The Astonishing Tribe

Techfaith

Telecom Italia Mobile

Telefonica

Texas Instruments

T-Mobile

UIQ

Vodafone Group

Yahoo