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The brand new mobile gaming report from visiongain says that mobile gaming is showing signs of slowdown due to rising costs.
Since 2003, much anticipation has surrounded the nascent mobile gaming business, a new area of fusion between the burgeoning mobile communications and video gaming industries. That year, mobile gaming was to enter into a new phase of development driven by three key factors:
1) The increasing saturation prevalent in the major developed economies which pushed mobile network operators to diversify revenue streams as the traditional pillars of subscriber growth and voice margins began to deteriorate
2) The emergence of downloadable technologies and enabled handsets to offer a compellingly simple platform for the delivery of games, with the added significant advantage of focused charging methods to be integrated into existing operator billing mechanisms
3) The emergence of packet-switched data capability in the form of 2.5G networks (GPRS and CDMA 1xRTT) which set the scene for the mass migration to 3G networks two years later
Prior to 2003, mobile gaming had only ever made an impact in Japan and South Korea, particularly in terms of NTT DoCoMo’s i-mode business model. Crucially for mobile gaming in those countries, i-mode was and remains based on a revenue share model designed in favor of content providers, who receive 90% of download fees. This model thus spawned unprecedented growth but has never been favored by European and North American operators to the detriment of mobile gaming in the West.
In the intervening years between 2003 and 2008, mobile gaming in Europe experienced significant growth from an adoption perspective, business model evolution and technological progress. Operator portals such as Vodafone live! and T-Mobile’s t-zones fed a growing consumer appetite for downloadable Java and Symbian games. Alternative off-network portals run by distributors such as Handango and Jamba/Jamster, were also considered successful. Major publishers from the console space such as EA and THQ moved into mobile gaming, bringing popular console titles such as the SIMS, the FIFA football games series and Sonic to mobile phones. In 2006, an estimated 14% of UK mobile subscribers had downloaded at least one mobile game, double the figure for the previous year. Mobile gaming was truly on the rise.
By 2008, the overall picture for mobile gaming had begun to display signs of slight deterioration brought on by the rising costs of porting applications across multiple platforms and operator-centric revenue share models.
The following developments appear to define the current evolutionary stage of mobile gaming:
• Top mobile publishers EA Mobile and THQ reported falling earnings over H1 2008 while the proportion of mobile subscribers downloading games had remained static.
• In the mobile operator domain, mobile gaming had slipped as a priority, taking a back seat to mobile TV, mobile music and user-generated content on European operator portals in particular.
• A standstill in video gaming has also taken place in parallel, with only casual gaming -exemplified by Web-based Flash games and the Nintendo Wii – experiencing growth while other next generation consoles the PS3 and Xbox
Mobile gaming’s promise in delivering a lucrative boom industry still remains valid nonetheless, with advances in network technology (HSPA and UMB), hardware acceleration and 3D graphics forming potential future drivers. However, mobile gaming arguably requires a solid catalyst to finally deliver a genuine critical mass and a sustainable market presence for the industry.
This report introduces a potential catalyst for both the mobile and video
gaming markets in the form of convergence between portable handheld gaming
consoles and mobile phones. Order you copy of this report to learnt:
* The direction of current developments in the mobile gaming and video gaming markets
* Initiatives by major market players in the field of convergence between gaming and wireless communications (including WiMAX and Wi-Fi)
* The identity of the product – a converged gaming and communications device – which will potentially raise the profile of mobile gaming and re-establish portable console gaming in the mainstream market
* How the major components of the mobile gaming value chain (developers, operators, publishers) can capitalise on the growth enabled primarily by mobile gaming’s key catalyst
For those involved in the mobile gaming sector vendors, this report will provide essential insight and vision for the future.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction
1.1. The State of Play
1.2. An Emerging Pastime from Complementary Functions on Handsets
1.3. The Start of Consumer Growth
1.4. Focus of the Report
2. The Games Market Structure and Size
2.1. The Computer and Video Gaming Markets: An Historical Context
2.1.1. From Roots to Shoots
2.1.2. The First Handhelds Appear
2.1.3. Sony begins domination
2.2. Hardware: Overall PC and Console Games Market Development
2.2.1 Consoles
2.2.1.1. Commercializing the Next Generation of Consoles
2.2.2 PC
2.2.3. Dedicated Portable Gaming Devices
2.2.3.1. Sony PlayStation Portable (PSP) and the PSP Slim and Lite
2.2.3.2 Nintendo-DS (Dual Screen) and Nintendo DS Lite
2.3 Sectors of Gaming
2.3.1. Gaming by Hardware Type and Connectivity
2.4. Industry Structure and Value Chains
2.4.1 The established value chain
2.4.1.1. Competitive Pressures within the Console Business
2.4.1.2. Middleware
2.4.1.3. Developers
2.4.1.4. Publishers
2.4.1.5. Distributors
2.4.1.6. Retailers
2.4.1.7. Changes in the value chain
2.5 Gaming Business and Revenue Model Issues
2.5.1. Rising costs and the influence of consoles
2.5.2. PC and Console Business Models
2.5.3. New revenue models
2.5.3.1. Retail purchase – play online for free
2.5.3.2. Subscription – paying a monthly fee
2.5.3.3. Case Study – World of Warcraft (WoW)
2.6. Video Game Market Trends and Prospects
2.6.1. Forecast: Further Growth for Video Gaming
2.6.2. Video Gaming Market Outlook: An Industry in a State of Flux
2.6.3. The Redefinition of the Video Gaming Industry
3. The Mobile Games Landscape
3.1. Developmental History
3.1.1. Developments Up to 2003
3.1.2. The Seminal First Breakthrough in Mobile Gaming – Snake by Nokia
3.1.3 WAP, SMS and i-mode
3.1.4. The European and US Games Markets Lag Behind Japan
3.1.5. The Advent of Downloadable Games and Runtime Execution Environments
3.2. The Current Situation
3.2.1. The Mobile Gaming Market from 2003 to 2008
3.2.1.1. The entry of traditional video game publishers into the mobile space
3.2.1.2. Proliferation of Mobile Games Titles
3.2.1.3. Enhancements in Mobile Game Quality
3.2.1.4.Improved Network capability
3.2.2. Mobile Games Platform Development
3.2.2.1. 2D games
3.2.2.2. 2D multiplayer games
3.2.2.3. 3D games
3.2.3. Developments in Dominant Platforms and Programming Environments
3.2.3.1. Java and J2ME
3.2.3.2. Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless (BREW)
3.2.3.3. Adobe Flash Lite
3.2.3.3.1. Flash Lite 3
3.2.3.4. Symbian
3.3. Nokia N-Gage: A Genuine Mobile Gaming platform
3.3.1. Nokia and Mobile Gaming
3.3.2. The first generation Nokia N-Gage device: Limited Impact
3.3.3. Nokia N-Gage QD
3.3.4. Conclusive State of Affairs: The failure of the First Generation N-Gage
3.4. Mobile Game Content
3.4.1. Game Genres
3.4.2. Marketing and the Increased Role of Brands in Mobile Gaming
4. The Evolving Mobile Game Ecosystem
4.1. Business Models along the Mobile Game Value Chain
4.1.1. Game Developer
4.1.2. Porting Service
4.1.3. Game Publisher/Aggregator
4.1.4. Handset Manufacturer
4.1.5. Carriers
4.2. The Mobile Gaming Business Model
4.3. Consumer Charging Models
4.4. Dominant Players and their Business Models
4.4.1 Acten’s Revenue Share Study
4.5. Alternative Distribution Channels: Off-network portals
5. Analysis: Market Drivers and Constraints for Mobile Gaming
5.1. Market Drivers: Technical Factors
5.1.1. 3D Game Proliferation
5.1.2. The increasing end-user uptake of 2.5G and 3G handset models
5.1.3. Increased handset memory
5.1.4. Advances in Removable Storage
5.1.4.1. Flash Memory for Mobile Phones
5.1.4.1.1. CompactFlash (CF) Memory Card
5.1.4.1.2. MMCs (MultiMedia Cards).
5.1.4.1.3. Memory Sticks.
5.1.4.2. Hard Disks in Mobile Handsets
5.1.5. Development Platforms and Runtime Environments
5.2. Market Drivers: Commercial/Marketing Factors
5.2.1. MNO Marketing Campaigns between 2003 to 2006
5.2.2. Major PC and Console Publishers move into Mobile
5.2.3. The Emergence of Several 'Pure play' Mobile Games enterprises.
5.2.4. Lower Barriers to Entry for Games Developers.
5.3. Market Drivers: Creative Factors
5.3.1. The Introduction of Mobile Multiplayer Gaming.
5.3.1.1 High Bandwidth Enables Rich Game Content –
5.3.1.2. Lower Latency Will Lead to Real-Time Multiplayer Gaming-
5.3.2. The increasing availability of higher quality games.
5.3.3. A Rapidly Widening Games Repertoire.
5.4. Constraints
5.4.1. Technical Constraints
5.4.1.1. Platform fragmentation
5.4.1.2. Mobile Network Deficiencies
5.4.1.3. Small Screens present Users with Limitations in Usability
5.4.1.4. Limited Overall Usability for Current Mobile Games
5.4.2. Constraints in Commercial/Market Dynamics
5.4.2.1. Actual Mobile Gaming Adoption versus 2.5G/3G/3.5G Device Adoption
5.4.2.2. MNO Marketing Focus on Mobile TV and Mobile Music
6. The Market Opportunity Under Development
6.1 Mobile Gaming Developments during the 2006-2008 period
6.1.1. 3G HSPA
6.1.2. The Global Implementation of IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem)
6.1.3. The Planned Commercialisation of the revamped Nokia N-Gage platform
6.1.4. The Commercial Development of VoIP over Wi-Fi Connectivity for the Sony PSP
6.2. Current Market Trends
6.2.1. Downturn in Mobile Games Sales over H1 2008
6.2.1.1. EA Mobile
6.2.1.2. THQ Wireless
6.2.1.3. Glu Mobile
6.2.1.4. Gameloft
6.2.2. Slow Next Generation Console Sales through 2008
6.2.3. Consolidation among mobile game industry players
6.2.3.1. Zenops Acquisitions
6.2.3.2. Oberon Acquires I-Play
6.2.4. Market Streamlining in the Online Sector
7. Future Direction: Convergence
7.1. The Traditional Mobile Gaming Model through Downloads Will Remain Static.
7.2. Console-PGC-Mobile Convergence
7.3. A Possible Catalyst: A Sony Ericsson PSP Mobile Phone
7.4. Reasons for Speculation over a Sony Ericsson-branded PSP
7.5.Brand Developments towards a PSP-branded Sony Ericsson Mobile Device
7.6. Technological Developments towards a PSP-branded Sony Ericsson Mobile Device
7.6. The Future Product Release according to the Sony Ericsson “PSP” Patent Application
8. Conclusions: Market Trajectory and Forecasts
8.1. Forecasts: Growth for Sony Ericsson and the Mobile Gaming Market
8.1.1. PSP-branded Device Sales Performance
8.1.2. Increased Revenue from Mobile Gaming
8.2. Repositioning of Mobile Gaming with the Overall Video Games Market
8.3. Regional Market Realignment
COMPANIES MENTIONED
Adobe Systems, ARM, AT&T Mobility, BenQ Mobile, Capcom, Digital Chocolate,
EA Mobile, EIDOS, Electronic Arts, Electronics Boutique, Falanx, FIFA, Filao Mobile, Gameloft, GameStop, Glu Mobile, Imagination Technologies, Indiagames, In-Fusio, I-Play, Jamdat, KDDI, LG, Lucent, Mforma, Microsoft,
Mobile Scope, Motorola, Nintendo, NIVIDIA, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Oberon, Orange, Pogo.com, PopCap, Posdata, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Qualcomm, RealNetworks, Samsung Electronics, SanDisk, SavaJe, Sci Entertainment Group, Sega, Shockwave, Siemens, Sony Computer Entertainment Europ, Sony Corporation, Sony Electronics, Sony Ericsson, Sorrent, Sprint-Nextel, Sun Microsystems, Symbian
Taito, Telecom Italia Mobile, Telefonica-O2, THQ Wireless, Tira Wireless, T-Mobile, Toshiba, Ubisoft, Verizon Wireless, Vivendi Universal, Vodafone, VU Games, Yahoo.0, Zenops
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